What the 2024 Elections Mean for Vermont + Engaging with Elected Officials

Vermont Elections Favor a Balance of Power in Montpelier and Focus on Affordability 

The pendulum swung right: In a year of record turnout, the Democrats’ supermajority in the Vermont House and Senate was dramatically dismantled;  

• The Republicans tallied 13 of the 30 seats in the Senate when all was said and done, up from just seven. Plus, the Lieutenant Governor presides over the Senate and breaks ties, and that’s a Republican. 
• The Republicans also now boast 55 of the 150 seats in the House, up from 38 last biennium. Three Republican-leaning independents are also present, leaving Democrats with 92 members. 

The loss wasn’t just in numbers: Democrats lost two Committee Chairs, an Assistant Majority Leader, and a Vice-Chair of the only committee chaired by a Republican, among other active caucus members. 

• Furthermore, while attention is often focused on the numbers for floor votes, with more Republicans in the legislature, there will be more balanced committees. 
• In the last two biennia, party lines weren’t a problem in committees, with some committees not even having a Republican; that cannot be the case with these new numbers. 

It’s not just the Legislature: Democrat-turned-Republican John Rodgers pulled off a surprising upset, squeezing out a victory over incumbent Progressive Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman. 

• Looking beyond John Rodgers, no Democratic statewide candidate did as well, with each down roughly 8-10% from the last election despite having incumbency, relatively unknown candidates in opposition, and fundraising advantages. 
• This isn’t due to the Presidential election: Harris only did 1.69% worse than Biden did. 
• The Progressive party is also nearly nonexistent now, with the whole legislative caucus able to occupy a compact Subaru. 

The Strategy: For years, many thought that if they could harness Phil Scott’s status as the most popular Governor in the country, despite being a Republican in a deeply blue state, the Republicans would gain ground, however, the Governor’s coattails never seemed long enough. 

• This year, as he cruised to his fifth term, something was different: Republicans actually fielded a substantial number of candidates and property tax increases as well as other expensive policies, such as the Clean Heat Standard, seemed to have driven Vermonters out to rebuke Democrats after they voted Democrat in the Presidential race. 

• Affordability was a throughline of all the successful Republican campaigns and a clear message sent to Montpelier. 

Electioneering isn’t entirely over: While the Vermont populous might have voted already, the Speaker of the Vermont House election is just heating up. 

• Long-time Independent Rep. Laura Sibilia, who has proven a power broker and leader of the Rural Caucus, made waves weeks ago when she announced she was running for Speaker against current Speaker Jill Krowinski, an effort possibly buoyed by the poor Democratic Party performance. 

Looking forward to January:  When the new legislative biennium begins on January 8th, the tone will be decidedly different without the Democratic supermajority. 

• Education Finance: In December, we’re likely to get a preview that all school budgets  could require  another double-digit property tax increase without action, and the newly elected Republicans will push hard for action that is more dramatic than their Democratic peers may have  otherwise allowed if they still had their supermajorities. The Commission on the Future of Public Education was supposed to have a year to do its work, and given these election results, many won’t be that patient.   
• Clean Heat Standard and GWSA Law Suit: While the Democrats have been trying to walk back the impacts of these two policies, they’ve also been clinging to them, and it lost them many races. The Clean Heat Standard is certainly toast and an attempt to revise the Global Warming Solutions Act will be up quickly on the docket. 
• Housing and Act 250: The Republicans were not happy with the outcome of Act 181, as it made many urban areas easier to develop and put up more obstacles in more rural parts of the states.  

LCC is currently working with our members on our policy platform for January, which will focus primarily on affordability, education finance, housing, and public safety. Stay tuned for more details.