The Lake Champlain Chamber is a nonpartisan entity that does not endorse candidates, and this guide is solely to inform voters of options ahead of the August 13th primary election and November 5th general election.
LCC’s Candidate Questionnaire is due back from candidates on July 15th, and we look forward to receiving their responses.
The High-Level Overview of the Election
- If you’re interested in top-ticket, statewide races, this election is boring to you, as there have not been serious challenges mounted against incumbent candidates.
- The real action is in the down-ballot House and Senate races, where there are some hotly contested open seats as well as some credible primary and general election challenges to incumbents.
- Broadly, this is a much more competitive election than the past few, where Republicans were unable to mount challenges for many House or Senate races.
- In the House:
- There are about 36 seats affected by retirements that are now up for grabs:
- About half of the races are uncontested and of those, about 46 are held by Democrats, and 25 are held by Republicans.
- Democrats are running roughly 132 House candidates, while Republicans are running 79.
- The Progressive party is officially running only two candidates for the 150 House seats.
- The Republican party will need to net close to 50 seats to provide future cover to Republican Governor Phil Scott, who has had a record number of his vetoes overturned by the Democratic supermajority.
- On the Senate side – five seats up for grabs due to Senators departing:
- The Democrats and Republicans are somewhat evenly matched, with 32 Democratic candidates and 26 Republican candidates for 30 total seats.
- The Republicans will need to net about five seats to make veto votes less predictable for the Democrats. Also, in the Senate, a change to more moderate Democrats can make a massive difference as well.
- Fundraising, as of the last filing, has been rather lackluster this year across the state races.
We’ll break down some of the Toss-Up primary and general election races that could be consequential.
Senate Primary Contests in Our Region
- Chittenden Central – In the Democratic Primary, longtime media staple Stewart Ledbetter could give incumbents a real contest with his decades of name recognition from being on our TV sets and the nearly $50,000 he was able to raise as of the last campaign finance disclosure.
- He’s facing off against three incumbents in the district who are staying tightly together: Senate President Pro-Tem Phil Baruth, Martine Laroque Gulick, and Progressive/Democrat Tanya Vyhovsky, who is running in the Democratic primary.
- Grand Isle – for the first time in 40 years, the district will have a Senate race without Senator Dick Mazza on the ballot.
- The Democratic primary has the Democratic candidates presented to the Governor to fill the vacancy in that seat squaring off.
- Andy Julow was appointed to the seat, serving as a Senator for the most recent veto session, where he broke with the party on Safe Injection Facilities. Julie Hulburd, currently on the Cannabis Control Board, is challenging the fresh incumbent.
- Whoever wins will face off against longtime Colchester Republican Representative Pat Brennan.
- Chittenden SouthEast – the three Democratic incumbents, Senators Ginny Lyons, Kesha Ram Hinsdale, and Thomas Chittenden, are running as a slate in a primary where they face Louis Meyers attempting to break through in the primary.
- Addison – Just south, in Addison County, Democratic Representative Caleb Elder, focussed acutely on housing policy tax relief, has joined the Democratic primary, challenging Senators Christopher Bray and Ruth Hardy.
House Primary Toss-Ups in Our Region
- Chittenden 13 – the five sisters neighborhood, or “the additions” section of the South End of Burlington, is possibly the most hotly contested primary race in the state. After one of the two Democratic incumbents retired, three Democratic candidate hopefuls stepped up, making a four-person contest.
- Tiff Bluemle, the incumbent, is a member of the Appropriations Committee and will look to voters to send her back for a third term. Other hopefuls include;
- Bram Kleppner, former CEO of Danforth Pewter and Tax Structure Commissioner.
- Dale Azaria is an attorney at the Conservation of Law Foundation.
- Larry Lewack, the retiring planner from the Town of Charlotte, is seeking the seat.
- Chittenden 17 – The New North End just had a turnover when Progressive Representative Emma Mulvaney-Stanek stepped down after taking over official duties as Mayor of Burlington.
- In a contentious move, Governor Phil Scott appointed Abbey Duke, a Democrat and local business owner, instead of one of the Progressive Candidates sent to him. His reason was that Mulvaney-Stanek ran as a Democrat in the primary against the incumbent before immediately rescinding the label and becoming co-chair of the five-person Progressive caucus.
- One of the Progressives sent to the Governor to fill the vacancy, Missa Aloisi, is running as a Democrat in the primary.
- Chittenden 7 – The retirement of Jessica Brumsted has kicked off a primary for the wide-open seat between local business owner Shawn Sweeny of Sweeney DesignBuild and Michael Ashooh, a Lecturer at UVM and Chair of the Shelburne select board.
- Washington-Chittenden District – is a two-seat House district that is home to two prominent, longtime House Committee Chairs, Tom Stevens and Theresa Wood, who are facing a primary challenge from Elizabeth Brown.
Interesting General Election Contests in Our Region
- Chittenden 19 – As mentioned above, longtime Republican Representative Pat Brennan is seeking the Grand Isle Senate Seat, leaving one open seat in the two-seat House district, and he encouraged a young Republican Candidate, Leland Gazo, to go for the seat.
- The sole incumbent, Sarita Austin, will have an uncontested primary alongside newcomer Wendy Critchlow.
- Chittenden-North – a Senate district that was thought to be a sure thing for Republicans when it was first drawn, went to a Democrat last election cycle.
- The Democratic incumbent, Irene Wrenner, has a serious challenge from the current Republican Representative from Milton, Chris Mattos.
Interesting Contests Outside Our Region
- Windham 7 – The prominent Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, Emilie Kornheiser, whose proposed tax on unrealized capital gains and new top marginal income bracket gained national attention, is facing a challenger in the Democratic Primary from Amanda Ellis-Thurber.
- Orleans – The retirement of Senator Bobby Starr opens up the Orleans district for the first time in nearly a half-century, and with it, questions as to whether the district is truly a Democratic district or if they were just fond of their pragmatic and center-of-the-road incumbent.
- As soon as Starr announced his retirement, the representative from Craftsbury, Katherine Sims, announced she’d be running for the seat. She’s raised the 8th highest total of any Democrat at ~$42,000 and even had Senator Bernie Sanders come stump for her.
- Her opposition is still unclear, as Samuel Douglas and Conrad Bellavance will square off in the Republican primary for a shot to compete with Sims.
- Caledonia – The retirement of the Senate powerhouse Jane Kitchel has raised some questions about whether her district could swing Republican.
- Rather quickly, Republican Representative Scott Beck announced his candidacy. Beck is a member of the Ways and Means Committee and has shown leadership on education finance reform, with plenty of opportunities to say “I told you so..” as the current education fund crisis unfolds. He’s also raised about $36,000 in campaign contributions.
- Beck faces a primary challenge from JT Dodge, who was previously a Libertarian candidate in 2020.
- There is a Democratic primary between Amanda Cochran, who was encouraged by Jane Kitchel to replace her, and Shawn Hallisey.
- Windsor – The retirement of longtime Senator Dick McCormack has triggered a feeding frenzy for the open seat in the three-seat district.
- Incumbents Allison Clarkson and Rebecca White have a crowded primary by hopefuls Joe Major, Justin Tuthill, and Marc Memeth.
- Republicans have a crowded primary here, too, with Andrea Murray, Jack Williams, Jonathan Gleason, and Robert Ruhlin competing to be on the slate of three for the general election in November.
- Bennington District – the retirement of Senator Brian Campion and the unexpected passing of Senator Dick Sears leave big shoes to fill in Bennington County.
- Stepping up early to fill those was Democratic Representative Seth Bongartz, who spearheaded much of the House negotiations for Act 250 reform over the past few years. With Senator Sears still on the ballot, the intention was to nominate a replacement after the primary; however, Rob Plunkett recently mounted a write-in campaign for the Democratic primary election.
- Former Representative Cynthia Browning who was controversially left without a committee after a procedural move during the pandemic and is now running as an independent.
- Orange – Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark McDonald has his first real competition in some time from Republican hopeful Larry Hart.
Things That Could Tip the Scale
In Vermont’s small districts, where one vote has reportedly made the difference, small things can go a long way. We’ve broken down some of the factors that could come into play over the next few weeks.
- Campaign Contributions – it costs an awful lot to do the work of campaigning, and even $100 can go a long way for down-ballot races.
- Primary Picking – while SevenDays has covered how moderate Democrats are attracting support from known Republicans, the question remains if they will attract votes…
- In Vermont, anyone can pull any party’s ballot during a primary, as evidenced by Progressives participating predominantly in the Democratic Primary and the number of Democrats that pulled Republican Presidential Primary ballots.
- For many Republicans, particularly in Chittenden County, there are no contested primaries in their district, so they may choose to pull Democratic primary ballots, and vote for Democrats they see as more reasonable.
- Primary elections tend to bring out the extremes of each party, and this could be something that mutes that.
- Bullet Voting – Many voters read their ballot instructions and select as many candidates for office as they are instructed to, however, they do not have to. A voter can, for example, decide to vote only for one of the two candidates in a multi-seat district. If enough voters do this, it could help that candidate exceed the others’ vote total by a larger margin, tipping the scale or sending a message.
Good Resources
- Soon: LCC Candidate Questionnaire
Good Media on Races
- Some Republican and Business Donors Support Moderate Dems as ‘Least Worst’ Option – SevenDays
- Yearning for warmer winters, generational change, higher office or a stable living: Legislators cite myriad reasons for leaving their seats – VTDigger
- Ahead of the primary, a small group of Senate candidates has raised a large amount of cash – VTDigger
- Vermont House members hope to clinch Senate seats in open races – VTDigger