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Legislative Update – Post Election Breakdown, Economic Recovery Grants

November 6, 2020

What a week. LCC’s team has been busy breaking down the results that are still coming in from Tuesday to bring you in-depth analysis and prepare for the changing landscape.

In this week’s update:

Election Breakdown 

With record voter turnout Tuesday, 247 out of 251 towns and 141 of the 150 legislative districts were carried by the incumbent Governor Phil Scott. Pundits on either side will debate the reason, with some saying this is Vermonters rewarding Scott for his handling of the pandemic and others saying it was a referendum on progressive politics in the state. 

The truth might be somewhere in between. Certainly, Scott has seen outsized praise and facetime with Vermonters this year, however, the numbers also hold some perspective. Seasoned Democratic-Progressive hybrid Gubernatorial candidate David Zuckerman finished with almost half of the total votes that political newcomer and Democratic wunderkind Molly Gray did in the Lt. Governor’s race after a campaign season in which Gray seemed to distance herself from her party’s gubernatorial candidate. 

The top of the ticket races was less surprising, the real intrigues came down the ballot. The Vermont House Democrats said goodbye to their Speaker and their supermajority in the same night. The Vermont House Republicans were able to add three additional seats, leaving the party divide at 92 Democrats, 7 Progressives, 5  Independents, and 46 Republicans. 

While at first glance, it seems as if the Democratic party will have a harder time, consider these factors; 

  • First, many of the seats that were picked up by the Republicans were already held by rather moderate democrats. 
  • Second, media coverage of the shift in the general assembly characterized the independents as not within the Democratic/Progressive coalition, which anyone will tell you is not entirely true. 
  • Third, Democrats have lost at least a few mavericks that caused trouble over the years. 
  • Fourth, some legislators may find it is a lot harder to stray from the pack when there is no wiggle room within the whip count. When the party leadership counts on every single vote with a smaller caucus, there is even more pressure to conform to what the leadership asks. In short, these numbers could affect party discipline. 
  • Fifth, newcomers (of which there will be 30) won’t find their own way in a virtual setting; they’ll likely vote the party line. It was recently said of politics in Washington, “we don’t legislate anymore, we wait around for leadership to agree and then we vote.” It’s likely that’s how Vermont legislating will go, especially as they stay in a remote setting that doesn’t really favor independent thinking and certainly doesn’t do anything to foster that for incoming freshmen. Without a State House hallway or cafeteria to network and learn for one’s self, the new members are likely going to find themselves entrenched in their committee meetings on zoom and then showing up for a virtual floor vote they know little about. It’s almost a dream scenario for a party whip. 

In short, while the veto override capacity is slightly diminished, the headlines exaggerate the extent of the damage done to the majority party. 

Tuesday night’s largest development came with the Speaker of the House, Mitzi Johnson, losing her race by 18 votes. There will be a recount, and if she loses, there will be a rapid race for the Speaker position, and the caucus will see the fallen Speaker as a martyr. Speculation began long before election day with the expectation that House Majority Leader Jill Krowinski and former Majority Leader and one-time contender for the Speaker position Sarah Copeland Hanzas would move towards the helm. In the time since, rumors have circulated that Tim Briglin, Chair of House Energy and Technology might be a contender as well. 

Another interesting development is Robin Chestnut-Tangernam, the Leader of the Progressive Caucus, who lost to a Republican challenger. Despite the progressives maintaining their caucus of seven, all the districts they carried were already progressive. The one they flipped was less the product of turnout as it was the Democratic party falling asleep at the wheel and allowing progressives into their party primary. 

The Senate saw some small shake-ups and the Republicans picked up one new seat; however, the vote tally is relatively unchanged at a split of 23 to 7 in favor of the Democrats. Longtime Essex-Orleans Democratic Senator with a strong independent streak, John Rodgers, finished last in a bid to run as an independent and will be replaced by a new Republican, Russ Ingalls. Chittenden County incumbents remained safe despite being led in vote totals by two newcomers; Thomas Chittenden finished as the number one vote-getter, and Kesha Ram finished number three of six. Learn more about these candidates here and put Thursday, December 10th, in your calendar to meet them during LCC’s Legislative Reception. 

What shake-ups the Senate was spared by the election they might make up for in leadership changes as rumblings come from Montpelier that the presumptive new Senate Pro Tem, Becca Ballint, plans to reshuffle committees and send some longtime chairs packing. The Senator will likely have an easier time doing so as the new Lieutenant Governor joins the Committee on Committees with little experience in the building.  

What does all this mean? The current trajectory doesn’t change much. With Governor Scott’s recent sweep and leadership turnovers, there will be some need to test the waters, however, things will settle back to normal. 

National Level

As we write this, there are 16 possible paths to a Biden victory, and only one path for Trump. As numbers come in, it seems to be a question of when and how, not if, the Democrats will take the White House. Even with that, it’ll be bittersweet for the Democrats. As our Government Affairs Manager is fond of saying, “expectations are a downpayment on disappointment,” and the DNC must really be feeling that. As a Biden victory seems more certain, the results are not as overwhelming as many predicted and the greatly promised down ballot success was not delivered. This culminated in an angry, emotional, and (unfortunately for them) public soul-searching Democratic Congressional Caucus call on Thursday. In comparison, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was elated to find that the GOP held the Senate so that he can serve as a check on a Biden administration.   

Markets responded positively to all of this news. As experts put it, markets are playing off three things; COVID, Congress, and Confidence. A Biden presidency would likely mean better control of the pandemic, with the dust still settling Wednesday GOP leadership announced movement on another round of stimulus before the end of the year, and the prospect of a divided government inspires a lot of confidence as they know to expect no subtle policy changes to happen in the short term. 

What Does it Mean for Vermont? 

Many of us saw a blue wave in D.C. as a chance for all the issues that have dominated the Vermont State House, that truly need to be addressed at the national level, to finally be addressed there. With the promise of such divided government, don’t expect that to be the case until late into a Biden presidency now, and only if the Senate shifts. As we’ve outlined in other updates, Vermont really needs another relief package to come out of Washington and if it could happen before the end of the year, that would greatly assist legislators when they return in January. 

National Legislative Trends 

As if a blue wave’s expectations hadn’t disappointed Democrats enough on the national level, their performance in state legislatures is even less than expected. As we discussed in last week’s update, a democratic backlash was expected nationally in down-ballot state legislative races to flip many from Republican-controlled to Democratic-controlled. This didn’t happen and the consequences will be felt over the next decade because, in many states, the majority party has an outsized impact on the next redistricting. 

Before Tuesday, Republicans controlled 60% of the legislative chambers across the country and controlled both legislative chambers and the governor’s office in 21 states, compared to Democrats in 15 states. Experts expected that up to six states could see a flip in control this year, instead only four changed party, and in favor of the GOP. There were 11 Gubernatorial races this year and all the incumbents held their seats, with two additional governorships going to the GOP. While so much energy is being focussed on the national level, these changes (or lack thereof) will likely have the largest effect moving forward. Read more via NCSL

Apply for Economic Recovery Grants Before Monday 

The application window for businesses applying through ACCD will remain open until Monday, November 9th. Visit the ACCD COVID-19 Recovery Resource Center for full details, eligibility requirements, how to apply, FAQs for businesses, webinar recordings, and translated fact sheets. The application window for those businesses applying through the Department of Taxes has now closed.

Joint Fiscal Committee Moves Around Unspent CARES Dollars 

When the legislature adjourned in September, they left within the budget bill explicit instructions that the Joint Fiscal Committee can appropriate any CARES Act CRF dollars that might go unspent. As we approach the end of the year, some of the appropriations the general assembly created with CRF dollars have gone unspent, either because the needs were met another way or federal regulations have created an impediment. This week the Joint Fiscal Committee met to discuss reappropriating these funds as proposed by the Administration, a proposal that LCC supports. In their Thursday meeting, they approved the reallocation of $33 million in CRF to cover various needs, leaving the question of an additional $75 million allocation to the Agency of Commerce and Community Development for economic recovery grants until Monday. That allocation of $75 million would only cover a fraction of the $500 million in unmet needs seen by the Economic Recovery Grant Program jointly administered by ACCD and the Department of Taxes.

Join Our Government Affairs Manager for a Brew 

Grab a “brew” and connect with fellow members and Chamber staff: the “What’s Brewing” events center on specific themes, a guest facilitator, and provide a platform for you to build partnerships and exchange ideas.

Join us this November 12 at 4:30 pm for a “What’s Brewing with Austin Davis.”  Learn more about the Chamber’s advocacy work and connect with other members on legislative challenges. Pour yourself your drink of choice and get ready for an engaging conversation.

This event is free for members and capped at 30 participants. Zoom event details will be sent to registrants right before the event.

Save the Date – LCC December Legislative Reception 

Fresh off the success of our recent Legislative Breakfast, LCC is looking to keep you informed ahead of the next legislative session with a legislative reception on Thursday, December 10th at 3:00 pm. Mark your calendar and be prepared to interact with our team and newly elected legislators. Special thanks to our event sponsor, AT&T.

WATCH: LCC Employment Attorney Roundtable – Workplace Tension 

This is a tough time for everyone, as COVID-fatigue shows, elections add stress, and employees try to navigate the upcoming holiday season in the face of travel restrictions. LCC’s Government Affairs Manager sat down with three highly respected employment attorneys in our region to discuss how employers can navigate these hurdles. WATCH this only 30-minute video here.

Concerned or need to learn more about anything in this newsletter? Email our team at [email protected].

We look forward to working with you.
Sincerely, 
The Lake Champlain Chamber Advocacy Team

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Tom Torti, President
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Cathy Davis, Executive Vice President
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Austin Davis, Government Affairs Manager